Five burning Northwest Division questions
Hockey Betting Lines
09/26/2011 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Vancouver Canucks had by far the best regular season of all 30 teams last year. Unfortunately, they could not get the job done against Boston in the Stanley Cup Finals. Their over-reliance on the power play took its toll as they converted just 2-of-29 opportunities with the man advantage. That couldn't cut it especially since the Bruins allowed just six even-strength goals in the entire seven-game series.
The Canucks will now have to deal with a shortened offseason and injuries to important offensive contributors, such as Ryan Kesler and Mason Raymond. Don't forget, Kesler and Christian Ehrhoff, who signed with Buffalo over the summer, were two-fifths of No. 1 power play unit, one that led the league with 72 goals and a 24.3 percentage. Look for those numbers to drop in 2011-12.
The Canucks are extremely fortunate to play in the worst division in hockey as they were 18-4-2 against the other four squads last year - the most wins by one team in its own division. Given that, they will once again finish first in the Northwest but the bigger question is: Can Vancouver repeat as conference champions?
When one looks at the injury concerns as well as the fact that not one of the last five Western Conference Stanley Cup representatives finished with a better record the following season, it's fair to say the Canucks will falter from their perch as "Best in the West."
Bold prediction - Daniel and Henrik Sedin each pick up just 82 points on the season as opposing defenses will have an easier time containing the top line.
A WHOLE NEW OFFENSE IN MINNESOTA
With the additions of Dany Heatley and Devin Setoguchi, and hopefully injury- free seasons from Pierre-Marc Bouchard and Guillaume Latendresse, Minnesota will surely score more than the 206 goals the club potted last season.
However, the new pressure-the-puck style of coaching from Mike Yeo could cause problems for the defense. To that end, the Wild's key question is: How will an extremely inexperienced defense handle the transition?
Minnesota's backline is not inundated with precise passers. Outside of Marek Zidlicky, there's not a single defenseman that the team can count on to start the offense in the defensive zone. In addition, half of the top six D-men have played fewer than 240 career games.
Bold prediction - Minnesota drops to fourth in the Northwest.
CAN COLORADO STAY HEALTHY THIS SEASON?
The Colorado Avalanche started the 2010-11 campaign strong with 47 points in their first 41 games. Unfortunately, the bottom fell out and the club garnered just 21 points in the second half of the season with a 5-26-2 record to end the year.
The injury bug that has affected this team dearly over the last couple of years has reared its ugly head once again. Newly acquired defenseman Jan Hejda (knee) and winger Brandon Yip (arm) are both questionable to play in the opener against Detroit.
For the Avalanche to be successful, they need healthy seasons from Semyon Varlamov, Peter Mueller, Milan Hejduk, T.J. Galiardi, David Jones, and Kyle Quincey along with the aforementioned duo. That's a lot to ask for such a young team.
Bold prediction - Erik Johnson shatters his career high in points with 49.
WILL THIS BE THE YEAR THE OILERS BREAK OUT OF THE CELLAR?
Edmonton has garnered a league-low 62 points each of the last two seasons, which has allowed the team to amass a solid core of young talent. However, the only way the Oilers can move up in the standings is if goaltender Devan Dubnyk starts the majority of the games.
Dubnyk gave the struggling squad a chance to win almost every contest he played last season allowing three goals or less in 21 of his final 27 starts. On the flip side, Nikolai Khabibulin gave up four goals or more in 11 of his last 21 starts. Not surprisingly, Edmonton was victorious in just two of those games.
As is the case with Colorado, the Oilers need to remain healthy. Both Ryan Whitney and Taylor Hall suffered ankle injuries last year with the former missing the final 47 games and the latter sitting out the last 17. Moreover, team leaders Ales Hemsky and Shawn Horcoff played in just 47 contests. With Whitney and Hemsky still not 100%, the immediate future doesn't look as bright as the distant future, especially with a defense (minus Whitney) that lacks many puck carriers.
Bold prediction - Dubnyk doubles his win total from a year ago.
WILL CALGARY'S OFFENSE FADE AFTER A MONSTER SEASON?
Two seasons ago, the Flames finished dead last in the NHL with 204 goals. Last year, they jumped all the way up to the fifth spot with 250. Still, the rise in scoring wasn't good enough to carry them into the playoffs.
Superstar forward Jarome Iginla improved his goal total by 11, but the previous two years he increased his tallies by at least 10, his goal totals dropped by 15 and 17 the following seasons. In addition, many of his teammates had career years last year, such as Curtis Glencross, Mark Giordano, and David Moss, who scored 17 goals in only 58 games. Even Alex Tanguay had his finest campaign since 2006-07. It's doubtful all those players will continue their upward trends so don't expect a playoff run this upcoming season.
In fact, the only reason the Flames reached the postseason in 2008-09 was because the West wasn't as strong that year as it has been of late. The Flames tallied just four fewer points in 2010-11 than they did that season but finished 10th in the conference as opposed to the fifth spot three years back.
Bold prediction - Iginla tallies just 31 goals.
PREDICTED NORTHWEST DIVISION STANDINGS
1) * Vancouver 2) Calgary 3) Edmonton 4) Minnesota 5) Colorado
* - PLAYOFF TEAMS
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Sportsbooks to bet on football
Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.